Nostalgic Horse

by: Elizabeth Rancani

And the award goes to…..

A month ago, I would have said Rachel Alexandra deserves Horse of the Year no matter what happens in the Classic. Now I may just have to eat those words.

I just read Bill Finley’s take on the situation, and he is firmly for Rachel Alexandra. If one views the numbers, Rachel clearly does have the advantage. She has won eight this year, five grade ones to Zenyatta’s five wins, four grade ones. Rachel defeated males three times, and Zenyatta only once. I have been one of Rachel and Jess Jackson’s biggest supporters, often hailing the Moss/Shireff camp as wimps, afraid of the big filly, taking the easy road with their undefeated champ, simply to let Zenyatta stay undefeated. And what really did undefeated mean, if she was beating the same horses over and over?

Saturday changed all that. Zenyatta was denied Horse of the Year last year even with a perfect record. This year for her to be denied again, with a perfect record still would be a travesty. No, one race does not a champion make, but one has to look at the quality of the competition and think realistically what horse would win if they were to face each other? Who is the better racehorse? What an enviable spot for thoroughbred racing that both its stars are so talented that a strong case can be made for either one.

Rachel has defeated males three times, but only once did she face older horses. And Zenyatta made light work of the three year olds in the Classic. Mine That Bird almost caught Rachel in the Preakness. He was nowhere to be found in the Classic. Rachel defeated the winners of the Stephen Foster, Travers, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Acorn and Test. Zenyatta, on the other hand defeated winners of two Travers, Kentucky Derby, Belmont, Jockey Club Gold Cup, Man o’ War, Arlington Million, Group I Queen Elizabeth II Stakes, and the Ladies Classic winner three times, as well as the probable turf champ. Life is Sweet made Zenyatta look very, very good in defeating Careless Jewel, Cocoa Beach and Music Note (winners of the Alabama and Beldame).

Summer Bird could do no better than fourth in the Classic contest, suggesting that Rachel may have had her hooves full with Twice Over and Gio Ponti as well. Zenyatta also didn’t really seem to be in overdrive. She finished the race well within herself, answered the classic distance question, taking down the top males in the process. The older ‘top’ males Rachel faced consist of Macho Again and Bullsbay, hardly first tier males. Does anyone really believe Macho Again would have fared any better in the Classic against Zenyatta? And to date he is the best older male Rachel defeated this year. He finished a close second to her, and at a mile and quarter may have caught her. He would not have caught Zenyatta. It is not a stretch to say he probably would not have caught Gio Ponti, Twice Over, Summer Bird or Colonel John. So maybe his best performance in the Woodward put him in second, but put him in the Classic and he runs maybe fifth or sixth. And Bullsbay finished third to Rachel but finished far back in the Dirt Mile. His finish hardly flattered Rachel. Which filly now faced softer competition this year?

Rachel easily disposed of every filly she faced this year, winning by daylight. It is interesting to count how many times she was hit with the whip in the stretch against the boys though. Then count how many times Mike Smith hit Zenyatta. Look at Rachel Alexandra’s sweat soaked body after the Preakness, and look at Zenyatta, ears pricked, prancing and pawing the ground after the Classic. Zenyatta looked as though she were saying, ‘let’s do it again, I had a good time.” As silly as that sounds, to decide Horse of the Year between two top fillies that never faced each other, that all matters. Who is really the best racehorse in North America this year? Not just who won more races, but who would win against the other?

It is hard to make a case for Zenyatta without bashing Rachel Alexandra, and that is the last thing this turf writer wants to do. Rachel Alexandra is a deserving champion in her own right, and if she wins Horse of the Year, it will be no sad day for horse racing. Rachel’s campaign was ambitious, breathtaking, and record setting. She raced into the history books, and will forever be included with the very best fillies and mares of all time. She was nothing short of fabulous. But she didn’t defeat Zenyatta. No one did. No one ever has- not the very best fillies and mares, not the very best males and not even the world’s best. Mike Smith said unequivocally that Zenyatta is the horse of the year, the horse of the decade. He just may be right.

Zenyatta became the first filly to capture the Breeders Cup Classic, and what a performance! After being a little fractious entering the gate, and then having to unload because of Quality Road’s antics, the five year old mare proved what a pro she is, as she powered down the stretch and passed a gritty Gio Ponti.

Now fourteen for fourteen, she has answered the question of just how good she is. The Classic field was a tough bunch, and Zenyatta won with ease. She deserves every accolade thrown her way. Watching her before the race, she knows she is a champion, pawing at the ground like she is ready to devour whomever happens to have the misfortune of running against her.

Her running style is not flashy, but she gets the job done, much like another great undefeated female, Personal Ensign. Although, the sheer size and beauty of her reminds an old historian more of Forego. He was a monster that loved to run down his opponents and towered over them all. His campaign, while not undefeated netted him three Horse of the Year crowns. Many doubted Zenyatta before the race saying her numbers were slower than the best entered, but that is what is so beautiful and awe inspiring about her. She runs just as fast as she needs to, and only really runs the last quarter mile or so. Her speed numbers, therefore are not going to be flashy either. Mike Smith said she never was out of third gear the whole race. Just how fast is this mare? Smith certainly wasn’t working her very hard in the stretch. He was rubbing her neck a little because she was trying to ham it up down the lane.

After several casualty filled years, Zenyatta is what fans needed the most. Watching her walk onto the track, one can’t help but notice a happy, confident athlete that loves what she does. She dances before the crowd, obviously pleased with herself, and after today even the naysayers know why.

Rachel Alexandra added the Woodward to her list of achievements yesterday, and if the comparisons to Ruffian weren’t plentiful before, they are now. Randy Moss even put Rachel ahead of Ruffian in his own greatest fillies of all time list. That is certainly valid. Rachel’s campaign includes accomplishments the ill fated Ruffian never attempted.

But, back in 1986 I distinctly remember horse racing giants like Woody Stephens, among other columnists, saying that they thought Ruffian was the best until they saw Lady’s Secret. “She is the best of the best.” Now, no one is mentioning the gray little mare that also won Horse of the Year. Ruffian is the only filly the vast majority of writers can think of to adequately compare to Rachel Alexandra.

Certainly the two fillies are similar. One could argue, that what Ruffian did with ease, Borel does by beating his filly down the stretch, thus ensuring wide win margins. Jacinto Vasquez rarely ever touched his beautiful, black filly, who ran like the wind every time she set foot on the track, and left clockers marveling at what just happened, because it was just too easy for her to shatter one record after another. Often Vasquez would plead with his filly to slow down, and his arms would ache from the effort of holding her back. No matter what Rachel does, Ruffian will always be the measuring stick by which all great fillies are measured. Perhaps, it is because no one will ever know just how great she was. It is not far-fetched to say we never say the best of Ruffian, and yet, she still broke records that had previously stood for decades! One record in particular, was that she ran the fastest  5 1/2 furlong by a two year old at the historied Spa - and the list of two year olds that ran there included Secretariat and the great Man o’ War! Her legend grew to a proportion that may or may not be deserved, but it looms over all great fillies nonetheless.

Rachel Alexandra does have a resume unequaled by modern day fillies and one thing Ruffian never had, durability. It is her durability that in today’s day and age is so desperately needed. She has also been given the opportunity that Ruffian never had. Oh, to imagine if Jess Jackson owned Ruffian, and not Stuart Janney! Ruffian, could very possibly have been the second filly to wear the roses at Churchill.

The what ifs are what makes for such interesting debate among horse racing fans. The biggest debate today is oddly enough still between the Zenyatta and Rachel fans. Rachel has transcended another realm, and the debate between who is better between the two of them is just silly. Yes, Zenyatta is undefeated as one fan wrote on bloodhorse.com, but she has only won three races this year. She can’t win Horse of the Year off of a perfect record, no matter how many races she has won, unless of course, they were all run in the year of the vote, no? Her record this year stands at three for three. Rachel is eight for eight. And the fact that Zenyatta won’t travel, makes is so easy to criticize her and have a valid arguemnet. No matter how perfect Zenyatta is, this writer thinks that Rachel would have to travel back in time to 1975 to find a filly equal to her. What dream match ups would you like to see?

It seems like the ESPN writers just love to pick on Jackson, and we aren’t talking Michael! Now, I have taken shots at his decision to run Rachel off little rest in the Preakness, but for the most part, I see him for what he is…a sportsman.

He is not ducking Zenyatta by choosing to bypass the Breeders Cup. Period. He has proven that he does not duck anyone, and if Rachel’s races are any indication, she would have little trouble dispensing the reigning queen. She ran lights out in the Kentucky Oaks and came back two weeks later to take on the top three year old boys under new ownership. Zenyatta has yet to face the boys, even the glorified claimers of California’s circuit. Rachel embarrasses her inferior opponents in breathtaking displays. Zenyatta does not.

So Jess Jackson does not like ‘plastics.’ So what! The Breeders Cup races should not ever be races that define an entire year of work, which is exactly what has happened every year since its inception. The good old days used to focus on a horse’s whole body of work, not just one race that last weekend of October. Add to that the muddled picture synthetic surfaces brings to the table. There are horses that are superior on synthetics, and should they have the advantage since the Breeders Cup was ridiculously placed on that surface for two years in a row? Rachel has run on it once. Yes, she did well but she wasn’t facing a mare two years her senior, that runs primarily over it.

If anyone should be blamed it is Moss for choosing to duck competition, not once, but numerous times, maybe as many as nine! He wants to get his horse to the end of her career undefeated obviously and as Jeremy Plonk says that is more important than any Horse of the Year trophy. Is it? He points to Personal Ensign as an example, but seems to forget that Personal Ensign traveled, beat the boys and ran in the most heart-stopping Distaff in history against a Kentucky Derby winning darling and champion in her own right, Winning Colors. Sometimes in racing champions are judged by the company they keep and run against. Zenyatta defeated Ginger Punch and that may be the best horse she ever faced. That being said where is Cocoa Beach?

While I agree it is ridiculous to compare Zenyatta to Peppers Pride, her connections do leave open debate on just how fantastic she is. It has grown beyond tiresome seeing her fly past the same rivals over and over, the best recently being her own stablemate.

If the two ladies never meet, it will be ok. If Zenyatta were a turf darling, no one would be clamoring for a meeting between the two. So may be the same with dirt and synthetics in the years to come. They are different surfaces even though some in the industry will say they are not. It used to be horses ran over two surfaces and most were either a dirt horse or a turf horse. Now horses are asked to be a little of both also and run over synthetics. Until there are synthetics and turf (no dirt), the prejudices California horses face will continue to grow. If I were Jackson, I would not rush back to Santa Anita. Zenyatta has the advantage with her age, so I certainly would not give her the home court advantage. I would continue racing on the East coast, face the very best fillies and mares and beat the boys again in the Travers and maybe face them in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. I might even announce that the last race of Rachel’s season will be the Clark Handicap and if Zenyatta wants to challenge her there, so be it. At this point Rachel has won six of six so far at five different tracks, including three Grade Is and one against boys. Zenyatta has run just twice, one Grade I both at Hollywood Park. Anyone saying that Rachel has to beat Zenyatta, at this point is delusional. Now if she is to win the Breeders Cup Classic (and not the Ladies Classic), the game changes since thoroughbred racing loves to give awards out based on Breeders Cup results.

In other news glad to see that Mine That Bird’s connections finally bounced Borel. After his waffling during the Triple Crown it was long overdue. It is mind boggling how little respect this Kentucky Derby winner gets. After speaking with someone more in the know than me, I see it is more about jockeys wanting to ride for an entire stable instead of one particular horse. Mine That Bird does not come from a large racing operation, and therefore gets passed on more for loyalty purposes to larger stables, and not for lack of talent or promise. That being said his connections need to find a jockey who can make Mine That Bird their big classic horse. Mike Smith has Zenyatta running in the Classic so he is out for that, and Julien Leparoux (who has the right type of riding style for this fast late closing gelding) has Einstein as his big horse being possibly pointed to the Classic. At least both these riders would be able to commit to Bird until that point, and won’t make the mistake of bypassing his races in favor of an unproven colt like Warrior’s Reward. Why the connections of Warrior would want a jockey who will dump him in favor of Rachel should she run in either the Travers or Haskell is beyond me anyway. Granted, he may be a very nice colt, but Borel should have more loyalty to a horse and owner that netted him his second Kentucky Derby. It is understandable that Rachel would come first, but it is also understandable that Chip Wooley wants Mine That Bird to come before Warrior’s Reward, large stable or not. At this point he is the top three year old male in the country, and as a gelding the racing world could have him for years to come.

Saturday featured cakewalks for two of the best fillies of our time, but it was a mere blip on the radar screen. It seems pointless that these two greats keep beating up on some poor lesser fillies and mares. Rachel faced just two horses and they were brave indeed. Apparently the Preakness did not take anything out of the superstar as she just crushed her rivals.

Zenyatta bested her rivals without even trying very hard, but set no stake record and did not appear as dazzling. It isn’t every day we are treated to seeing a horse romp home 19 lengths the winner.

After the Preakness a fellow coworker was talking about Rachel Alexandra. He likes the horses, and bets when he is at area casinos. He was praising the Preakness winner, and I said “well there is one that may be even better.” I then mentioned Zenyatta’s name and he said…”never heard of her.”. Now that is sad! But it is also a testament to her schedule and the poor promoting thoroughbred racing does of its stars.

Instead of watching Hank Goldberg run through his money and squander the contents of his piggy bank on race day as he goes about not choosing one winner, why not highlight the horses that are currently at the top of their game? Introduce the public that just turns out during the Triple Crown races to a horse like Zenyatta. Wet their appetites of the upcoming states races, and the horses that the Triple Crown stars will be taking on later in the year. Watching Goldberg, an ‘expert horse handicapper’ lose money all the time, does not make gamblers want to run to the track with their hard earned cash. He makes them think they would be better off sticking a twenty in a slot machine.

As far as the two females meeting, a match race would be the dumbest thing that could happen. That is not Zenyatta’s running style and altering it for one race would not be a worthy indicator of her talent. Jess Jackson also cannot be blamed for not rushing back to the scene of Curlin’s defeat last year. If he doesn’t like synthetics, he doesn’t like synthetics. No big deal. Santa Anita should have known many East Coast stars would not be flocking to their doors simply because they put the Breeders Cup there. For many owners and trainers it is an unproven track that sometimes runs a little quirky. They aren’t used to it, and why make Rachel Alexandra try and topple Zenyatta (two years her senior so she has the advantage there anyway) at a track she has never run on? The fact that it is not proven to reduce breakdowns is another issue entirely.

It is understandable that Zenyatta runs in the state she is based, but why must she face mares all the time, the best being her very own stablemate? She isn’t facing the best fillies and mares, so at least make it a little more interesting and have her face some second tier boys.

It does appear that by staying on the East Coast Rachel will have the tougher schedule and therefore become the front runner for Horse of the Year especially if she topples males again in either the Haskell or Travers. If she does that and adds a few more Grade I races against females to her resume, she won’t need the Breeders Cup, especially if Zenyatta’s clan opts for the Ladies Classic again. Beating another bunch of fillies and mares that does not include Rachel Alexandra will not amount to the trophy they seek most this year. Staying perfect may not be enough especially when the darling of the racing world makes winning look so impossibly easy.

by: Elizabeth Rancani

Now it is announced that Jess Jackson who we all adored last year for bringing Curlin back at four, owns super filly Rachel Alexandra, and may run her in the Preakness Stakes. That should be a good thing for the sport, but for some reason I am getting visions of a man who wants so badly to be back in the limelight and have the top horse, that he will go to whatever ends to get it. The late Stuart Janney could probably teach him a thing or too about the limelight and what is really important in horse racing.

No, it is not breeding. Nor, is it seeing another Triple Crown winner. If Mine That Bird loses the Preakness, horse racing will continue on, staggering around on three legs like it has done for the past two decades, but it will still survive. It will sit on the back page of sports sections, until next year’s Kentucky Derby and hope of another Triple Crown winner comes along. Then a horse like Big Brown or Smarty Jones, one that was expected to win the Kentucky Derby, may take it back to the front page until after the Belmont Stakes, win or lose.

Horse racing has suffered two deaths during the Triple Crown since 2006, both were front page news. The feel good sport suffered major image problems after last year’s Kentucky Derby with the death of Eight Belles. So too was the death of the great filly Ruffian after a highly touted match race in 1975. One sportswriter at the time said it was like the titanic going down when Ruffian stumbled on that track. Another said it is like the sport never fully recovered from that incident. If Rachel Alexandra cannot handle the pressure on the track at Pimlico in the Preakness stakes, and injury befalls her, heaven help the sport of kings. It was not any less when Go For Wand died on the track at the Breeders Cup, but the masses don’t watch the Breeders Cup. The Cup, although a far more interesting day in horse racing, in my opinion, doesn’t warrant the press the Triple Crown does.

Randy Moss wrote a very interesting article for ESPN about the star filly. He said that just because Rachel Alexandra makes it look easy, doesn’t mean it is easy for her, or that the Oaks didn’t take a lot out of her. There is a lot of truth to that. Great horses run very fast, because that is what they love to do. They have speed, class, stamina and a heart to match. It is often the heart that carries them on long after the body has grown weary. There is little doubt if Rachel Alexandra would let a horse pass her in the stretch tired or not, and that is too eerily similar of that other late great filly. Ruffian’s trainer, Whiteley once said, “only the good ones get hurt. The bad ones don’t run hard enough to get hurt.” He was spot on. Go for Wand ran her heart out when the older mare Bayokoa refused to yield. Go for Wand carried on, until her weary legs could carry her no farther. She ran until all that was left was three legs, with a fourth dangling, grossly deformed. It is an image that will never leave me. Eight Belles ran the race of her life and a few strides past the finish line both broke ankles. Ruffian ran on a broken leg for 300 yards, for she refused to lose, thus eliminating all chance of survival.

Horses nowadays are not bred for durability. Fact. It is therefore the job of the owner and trainer to ensure that a horse is at its absolute peak when asking for its absolute best. Rachel will have just two weeks between the Oaks and Preakness, the smallest margin of time between races ever for her. And she will be asked to run the race of her life, against some equally tough boys, many with a lot more rest than she. Is it that important for her to win the Preakness Stakes? Frank Whiteley was adamant against Ruffian’s match race. She had just won the filly Triple Crown, and although she made it look easy, the spring still took its toll on his filly. He wanted to wait to face the boys in the fall, and said numerous times, he couldn’t wait until the fall so Ruffian could ‘whip ol Forego’s butt’. He said there was not a horse in the country who could beat her, and that may have been the truth. Oh, what a race that would have been- Ruffian and Forego. But, her owner was dazzled by the attention she drew, and felt the three ring circus the match race brought about was a way to tap into that in a big way. No one will say that celebrity didn’t motivate the decision. Horse racing had a star, and instead of jubilation, the sport opened itself up to scrutiny and many who watched that match race, never watched another race again. The sport apparently learned a lesson that day as well because there has not been a match race between major stars since.

Too bad the lesson was lost on some of the sport’s participants. Jess Jackson was the hero last year, and whether or not he stays that way, depends on how he handles his stable’s newest star. He is in a precarious situation, for Hal Wiggins made Rachel a force on the track, and if Asmusssen doesn’t have that same luck, people will always blame Jackson for the trainer switch. If, however, something happens to the filly in the next few weeks, Jackson will become the quintessential villain, and will suffer the likes of what Larry Jones endured last year after Eight Belle’s death. What Jones went through will look like a walk in the park by comparison.

After four major defections this week, including race day favorite, I Want Revenge, a race that seemed wide open was won in convincing fashion by a relative unknown. Coming down the stretch it appeared as though Pioneer of the Nile, Musket Man and Papa Clem were going to hammer it out to the wire. It would have been the closest Derby win in a long time.

However, one horse was flying up the rail fittingly named Mine That Bird. Suddenly a horse no one thought had a chance pulled ahead to win by 6 3/4 lengths, the largest margin of victory since 1946. Barbaro and Big Brown won by large margins, and shortly after, everyone said the Triple Crown drought was about to end.

No one is saying that now. Maybe it is because his trainer won just one race all year. Now make that two. Maybe it is because the colt was purchased for just $9500 and his recent outings in New Mexico did not exactly scream champion. Another colt was purchased for a bargain basement price back in 1976, and he went on to wear the crown in 1977. So, it can happen.

Mine That Bird certainly doesn’t have a pauper’s pedigree. His sire won the Belmont Stakes and thwarted America’s darling, Smarty Jones in his Triple Crown bid. His granddaddy wore the roses in 1996 (Grindstone). His maternal grandfather is the sire of dual Horse of the Year Curlin.

While it would have been nice to see Larry Jones win this year to atone for his haunting loss of Eight Belles last year, Friesen Fire finished way back. Perhaps, this was the best storyline, however, and Mine That Bird certainly has the makings of America’s horse. To see a horse that was originally purchased for just under $10,000 win the roses, is what the American dream is built on. Anyone can win the Derby.  A horse doesn’t have to be owned by a sheik or be a multi million dollar yearling purchase. In the end it was a little gelding ridden by a small town Louisiana native who looks like he would be more comfortable in  a trailer park than meeting the Queen of England who won the hearts and roses at the 135th running of America’s most prestigious race.

Mine That Bird may not be such a fluke or one hit wonder either. He was good enough at two to string together four wins, and become Canada’s two year old of the year. He was then sold and transferred to New Mexico, where he certainly didn’t seem to live up to his two year old campaign. Maybe he just wasn’t ready or maybe he just relished the sloppy going at Churchill Downs. Either way he is the only horse that stands a chance at winning the most coveted prize in all of horse racing. Now his connections are not sure The Preakness is well suited for their horse, or if it is even in their plans. If he is to pass, he would be the fourth Derby winner in history to pass the second jewel. Bubbling Over passed in 1926 and his own grandsire passed after being injured in 1996. Spend a Buck is the only horse in history that was perfectly healthy and opted for another race instead of The Preakness Stakes.

If Mind That Bird runs at Pimlico he will likely face Papa Clem, Mr. Fantasy and Take the Points. Quality Road will not be ready for the Preakness, and the jury is out on I Want Revenge, Friesen Fire and Pioneer of the Nile. Fifty eight percent of Derby winners also win the Preakness. If he can duplicate his Derby run, the second jewel is his.

Making the task easier is the fact that the most talented, and fastest three year old will be in the barn on Preakness day, and that is just plain wrong. Rachel Alexandra was nothing short of breathtaking this week, and for the first time ever a realistic comparision to the great Ruffian can be made. Calvin Borel never moved on the filly, and she coasted home to win by over 20 lengths. Not even Mine That Bird could have handled her on Saturday, and it is unlikely he will ever be up to that task. Lucky for him, he can get through the Triple Crown without ever having to face that star filly.

I Want Revenge will be scratched from The Kentucky Derby. Thankfully, the trainers this year are being cautious and realize that one race, does not a career make. It is better to withdraw and be around another day, than to run in the slop against a calvary charge of horses, some green, and risk a good horse never being the same again. Too many horses came to the Derby in good form, only to never run the same again.

So thank you IEAH, Jeff Mullins for putting your horse first. No one wants a repeat of last year’s Derby, and perhaps, that is why so many horses were at Churchill Downs last week, but will not be in the starting gate today. Quality Road is battling quarter cracks, and Square Eddie is dealing with sore shins again.

The will live to race another day. And that makes a lot of sense, indeed.

The Kentucky Derby is now six days away, and certainly this group seems far superior than last year’s bunch. Many have run a beyer number over 100 (an absolute essential for a Derby winner) in a prep. This year’s betting will be tough, as there is a case to be made for a number of them.

Some things to consider when betting the Derby-

Quality Road continues to battle a quarter crack, and this close to the Derby, it cannot be a good thing. A twenty horse field is expected, and with that much traffic, a horse needs to be in ‘perfect’ condition. Many horses have come out of the Kentucky Derby and never run the same again. Quality Road is too good to subject him to that. Save him for the Preakness where he will have more time to heal, and show his true self. A run in the Kentucky Derby is not worth a career. No where is luck more necessary than the Kentucky Derby, and lady luck claims many chances leading up to it every year. Quality Road holds the fastest beyer in our Derby preps this year, but the quarter crack negates his Derby chances.

That being said Gulfstream should take a look at their track. No doubt his quarter cracks came as a result of the rock hard track that is making track records fall to claimers and allowance horses alike. No one needs another catastrophic breakdown, and there is nothing to be gained from racing over a track like that one. Quality Road’s Derby hopes may be over after prepping in Florida. It should make other trainers think long and hard about sending their best babies out that way.

One horse that was supposed to be out, is now back in. Square Eddie had the talent last year and looked like a potential Derby winner, but ran short in the Blue Grass. Was one race enough to make it to the Derby winner’s circle? That is doubtful, but he should be a really good horse later this year.

What do with make of the overseas gang? Well, they certainly are talented, running 1-2 in the UAE Derby, but preps overseas have not netted a Derby winner yet, and it might not this year either. Although, these to seem to be the best hope to overcome that particular curse, their numbers fall somewhat below America’s best hopes.

Dunkirk’s 108 beyer in the Florida Derby has many fans smelling roses, but the Apollo curse looms large. Pletcher as a trainer (0 for 22 now?) looms larger. Mr. Finley at ESPN feels that Gomez made a mistake choosing Pioneer of the Nile over this colt, based solely on beyers, but really it would have looked silly to choose a horse that has never won a Grade I event over the seasoned Pioneer. Gomez owed Baffert and Pioneer that much, and Dunkirk has a lot to overcome to wind up in the winner’s circle. While many would point to Big Brown’s success last year, one would have to argue that the horses in this year’s Derby are faster. Dunkirk may be a Big Brown, but that is where the comparisions end from last year’s three year olds.

Pioneer of the Nile is not getting enough respect, but being a student of beyer numbers and how they play in the Derby, I can see why. He does seem to do what he has to do to win, and like Gary Stevens said “will only get better when he has a faster pace to run at.” Sometimes it appears that he is only ‘playing’ with his fields.  He also has Bob Baffert, who is no stranger to the Derby.  He has been flattered by the horses he defeated though, and it is not hard to imagine him jumping up 10 points or more on dirt. I Want Revenge will be the post time favorite, and he finished behind Pioneer twice. If Pioneer takes to dirt like his workout says he will, he will be very tough to beat. Rumor has it, he is a headcase though, and headcases struggle in twenty horse fields. The only horse that may beat him Saturday is himself.

I Want Revenge was fabulous winning The Wood Memorial. For a horse to overcome adversity and still rally in the stretch to win, takes a special horse. He will be the likely favorite, and rightly so on Saturday. He has it all; class, speed, stamina and maturity. Often in the Derby maturity is most important, which is one of the reasons a seasoned horse wears the roses most often.

Last year’s gallant second place finisher Eight Belles’ memory will haunt Churchill Downs this year, and no one but the Peta gang will be sad to see Friesen Fire take top prize. Larry Jones should end his career on a high note, and brings his best shot at the Derby to Louisville. Friesen Fire got his act together, and his only knock is a seven week lay off. Jones got a Danzig colt to a second place finish off a six week layoff so he knows how to work them so as not to have a short horse. If what horse people say is true and there are Derby gods, surely they owe Jones the roses.

Top Ten List

1. Pioneer of the Nile (beyer high 96)

2. I Want Revenge (beyer high 113)

3. Quality Road (beyer high 113)

4. Friesen Fire (beyer high 104)

5. Desert Party

6. Regal Ransom

7. Papa Clem (beyer high 101)

8. Dunkirk (beyer high of 108)

9. General Quarters (beyer high of 102)

10. Musket Man

A lot of handicappers would not think of betting a horse in the Derby that has not broken into the triple digit beyer numbers. The last horse to win without doing so in a prep was Giacomo. Quality Road would be the top pick if not for the quarter cracks. I Want Revenge and Papa Clem improved on dirt so if Pioneer of the Nile does just that it is hard to see him not winning the Derby. Regal Ransom should give him some pace to run at, and I Want Revenge, Musket Man, Friesen Fire, Quality Road, General Quarters and Desert Party will be there pressing it. Pioneer, Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Hold Me Back and West Side Bernie will be coming down the stretch late.

One this is for sure; this Derby is full of talent. It is hard to see any of these horses winning a Triple Crown however, since it is hard to imagine any of the top guns losing three times in a row.  When you have eight horses that have run big numbers in preps, you know you are in for a better season than 2008. And that is a very good thing for thoroughbred racing. Now if they can just stay sound……

Good for the game:

Peppers Pride-any time a horse wins 19 in a row, it is good for the game, even if it is in New Mexico. Her appearances there helped to attract old and new race goers alike, and it proves that people will come out to see hometown heroes. The only negative is there aren’t more classy, consistent horses across the country that could help attendance at other venues.

Zenyatta- she looks unbeatable, and next year the sky could be the limit. The problem is the first time main stream media heard her name was at the Breeders Cup, where she decimated her field. That is sad too, because her other races this year were just as impressive, especially her win in the Apple Blossom over the always tough Ginger Punch. Ginger Punch is off to the breeding shed and will be missed, but Zenyatta will be back for more next year.

Curlin/Jess Jackson- It has been a long time that a Horse of the Year has returned, or even a three year old male champ (unless we count the geldings). Kudos to the connections of Curlin for even wanting a four year old campaign. Curlin did not disappoint, and rattled off victories in the Dubai World Cup, Stephen Foster, Woodward, and Jockey Club Gold Cup. His try on turf did not result in a win, but he was still very game, and his Classic was not as bad as it looked. His beyer speed figures were still up there with the rest of his efforts. He just got beat by a better horse that day, in track record time.

Larry Jones- we shared his heartbreak over his filly’s tragic demise. He put a human face on a problem that is all to common in the game today. It was hard not to feel his pain, when he was so visibly shaken over the loss of Eight Belles. He showed the game is sometimes not as harsh as it appears, and the humans involved often really do love their equine charges.

The ladies- were ultra-consistent and where the excitement was at this year. Ginger Punch, Indian Blessing, Proud Spell, Music Note, Cocoa Beach and Zenyatta ran their hearts out this year. Stardom Bound (little Z around the barn) doesn’t appear to be letting the ladies down, and is poised to take the reins next year at three. Standing in her way are Zenyatta and Cocoa Beach, who will be tough to beat.

Racing duds:

Todd Pletcher- Ok, so Pletcher is an easy scapegoat, and we know he isn’t the only one doping his horses (Wait a While- Breeders Cup), but it is tiresome to see all the major trainers accused of drug infractions. It is long overdue for an overhaul on the way the offenders are punished (or not)!

Inaction from just about everyone in positions of power- Will they ever make drug policies with teeth? After seeing what they are currently doing, it is very doubtful. Forget about steroids for awhile, how about lasix? Every horse in this country runs on lasix, and it doesn’t do what it is supposed to do- which is stop bleeding. Does it make them faster? Maybe, as everyone is so afraid to take their horses off of it and find out.

Rod Stewart- another perfect example of what is wrong with current drug policies and punishments. He was caught with cobra venom but lucky for him we haven’t seen the last of him. His horses, however are not so lucky.

Rick Dutrow- he was good for press, but that was about it. It was also fun to laugh at him when his horse finished dead last in the Belmont. Big Brown had some spectacular races, but he certainly would have been easier to like and root for without his ass of a trainer.

Dan Liebman- God, we miss Ray Paulick and can at least catch his thoughts from time to time over at ESPN. Is there a more boring writer than Dan Liebman?

The three year olds- One word describes this group- slow. They took turns winning races in the spring, and didn’t seem to progress all that much throughout the rest of the year. It will be interesting to see if Mambo in Seattle, Harlem Rocker, Tale of Ekati, El Gato Malo and Colonel John are any better at four. If Big Brown really was greatness, because of this crop, he will forever be tainted. We will always wonder if he really was that good, or were his fields just that weak.

Coverage of all siblings related to Barbaro- be it Nicanor, Lentanor or whoever else Bloodhorse wants to cover….enough already! Remember all the buzz about The Green Monkey (never even won a race). Yes, they are related to Barbaro, but that in itself could be a problem. While Barbaro was fast, he wasn’t durable enough to hold together for seven races…a problem with the modern day thoroughbred, and now we have more baby Barbaros. Hopefully they are sturdier.

NTRA- they needed to support the bill that made horse slaughter just a little bit harder in the US. They didn’t and now anyone with a brain knows that just because we can’t slaughter horses in America, doesn’t mean thousands of our racehorses don’t end up across the border meeting their end in slaughterhouses. A PETA headed by some more “in the know” people could make a lot of noise with this one, instead of jumping on the jockey for the Eight Belles tragedy. The problem of what to do with retired racehorses, and the callousness in which some are abandoned makes it very hard to hope this sport continues in the black, and makes it an easy target for anyone crying animal abuse. It has often been said that there is a fine line between dog fights, cock fights and horse racing. Never before has the line been so fine.