So Hard Spun finally got the better of Street Sense. Street Sense had no excuses today, except of course, that he doesn’t like the surface. His superstardom lost some of its luster today, as Hard Spun gamely held off the Derby champ, which leads us to again question, just how good is Street Sense?

Often it is hard to catch the speed over a synthetic surface. Handicappers knew this and said that this was Hard Spun’s best shot to defeat Street. Hard SpunSpeed had much to do with today’s race, but it didn’t matter who was on the front end. Street Sense caught Hard Spun, and a game, super horse would have blown past Hard Spun at that point. The hard part is catching the speed. I fully expected Street Sense to blow past Hard Spun, but the gritty, little Danzig colt had something a little bit more. He had game. The two colts battled a little bit, and then Hard Spun put the champ safely behind him. So much for the coronation.

Street Sense is a good horse, make no mistake about that, but is he a great one? Last year he had one really good day, and that happened to be when it mattered most. He came back as a three year old and narrowly beat Any Given Saturday, and then lost to Dominican. What has Dominican done since then? Street then got a dream trip in the Derby and won. The Preakness looked like it was his, until a determined Curlin nipped him at the wire. Then it was off to Saratoga to beat up two easy fields. He barely beat Grasshopper last time out. Now if Grasshopper had come out of that race and won his next, it would have looked really good for Street Sense, but that didn’t happen.

Hard Spun since his Triple Crown, has finished second to Any Given Saturday in the Haskell, (and suddenly Saturday is looking a whole lot better, as he easily defeated Hard Spun there), and he won the King’s Bishop impressively after turning back a tough, seasoned challenger.

Still, questions remain over the distance for Hard Spun in the Classic. It doesn’t seem he will be able to steal this mile and a quarter challenge, and would probably be better suited in a shorter race. Same could be true for Lawyer Ron, who has never won at a mile and a quarter. He is tough and fast, but that distance may be more than he wants to travel. If Curlin gives Lawyer Ron trouble in tomorrow’s Jockey Club Gold Cup (as I suspect he might), the Classic will truly be anyone’s game. Any Given Saturday is much improved and will be hard to beat. Still, I wouln’t want to leave Street Sense off the short list of winners for the Classic. True, he should have won today, but Naftzger trains for a race, not a career. He didn’t care as much about winning the Kentucky Classic, as much as he cares about the Breeders Cup Classic. Street Sense probably wasn’t primed as much for this race, but you better believe he will be ready to roll in the Classic. It is his last chance at Horse of the Year, and quite possibly the three year old title. If Any Given Saturday, Curlin or Hard Spun beat him to the wire, it is over for him.

There are still five horses competing for the Horse of the Year title; Hard Spun, Curlin, Any Given Saturday, Street Sense and Lawyer Ron. If any of these wins the Classic, they are Horse of the Year. If someone else entirely wins the Classic, it could fall to one of these five who finishes the best. Any of these five will be a good choice and they have all run more this year than any of the past three Horse of the Years. That is good for the sport. The last three champions have won just four races for the entire year, hardly award worthy in years past. Lately, the Triple Crown takes so much out of the frail, drugged up horses that they cannot compete in the fall campaign. This was the case with both Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex. Their injuries were not career ending. Sadly, they were denied the chance to prove their full potential, and while they won the three year old title, it was easy to forget their Triple Crown triumphs and award a horse that was still running at year’s end the top prize. It is a pleasant surprise, indeed to see four Triple Crown stars still battling it out for the year end prize.

Now if we can just get the greedy owners to keep their stars on the track past their three year old campaigns, the sport would be in a real turn around. So far in the 2000s, that has not been the case, and sadly the trend is bound to continue. Fusaichi Pegasus, Point Given, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Bernardini and Empire Maker have all been whisked off to the breeding shed way too soon. The only one who stuck around was Funny Cide, and that is only because he is a gelding. Lawyer Ron is still at it also, although he was hardly a star through last year’s Triple Crown. He is still around because his owners want him to prove his worth before he goes off to the breeding shed. And, he just might prove most worthy of all.

Our Horse of the Year Odds:

Lawyer Ron 9-5 Ron only needs to prove that he can handle the distance. He has the class and speed of any of these three year olds, but questions remain about his stamina. He does have excuses for his two attempts at a mile and a quarter, and this year he has been spectacular.

Any Given Saturday 7-2 He is definitely peaking at the right time. He has won his last three (two in impressive fashion), and should love the mile and a quarter. He narrowly lost back in the spring to Street Sense, and we get a sense he is a much different horse now. If he can handle Ron, he should have no problem beating the rest of the Classic field.

Street Sense 3-1 We beat up on him here, but Street has never really run a bad race. He is classy and consistent and is proven at a mile and quarter. If he gets anywhere near the rail, watch out! He will have to step it up this time, and he cannot afford to hang at the end of the Classic as he often does. If he does that, he will surely get beat.

Curlin 4-1 He was sensational in the spring. Although green, he finished very well in the Derby, and then beat Street Sense in the Preakness. He narrowly lost the Belmont, but then didn’t seem to show up for the Haskell. Still his spring campaign obviously caught up to him, so a regression in the Haskell was bound to happen. If he bounces back in tomorrow’s Gold Cup, he could very well be the one to beat in the Classic.

Hard Spun 8-1 A gutsy, first class horse, but at a mile and a quarter against the best of the best, you have to be suspect of his chances. True, he did almost steal the Derby, but still one horse beat him, and that one horse will be at Monmouth. I will never again leave him off exotics, as he never finishes out of the money (well he did in the Belmont, but come on, a Danzig at a mile and a half, who are we kidding!). This still seems too tough a task for him.