by Jarrod Horak

With the pre-entries now released, along with the Breeders’ Cup Advance form, many handicappers across the nation are pouring over a plethora of data without a plan of attack. Knowing how to decipher the data is key, and the trainer angle is a good place to start.

Many high profile barns take plenty of action but struggle on Breeders’ Cup day, including Robert Frankel (4-68), Todd Pletcher (2-41), and Nick Zito (1-29). In contrast, a quality trainer like Richard Dutrow has only had four Cup starters, winning with his last two (Silver Train, Saint Liam), and he is getting aggressive this year with Benny the Bull, Diamond Stripes, the resurgent Kip Deville, and Oprah Winney.

The trainer angle is not limited to the historical record of a given conditioner in the Cup. It pays to look for a quality, conservative trainer with infrequent Cup appearances, and Barclay Tagg leads the list.

A trainer with the patience, poise and experience of Mr. Tagg always demand respect when they show up in big events. The aforementioned conditioner has as many as four bullets in his holster for the 2007 Cup festivities, including Nobiz Like Shobiz and Tale of Ekati. The former would have been one of the favorites in last year’s Juvenile, but his restrained trainer passed on Cup glory. His talented three-year-old has really come into his own since switching to the grass this summer/fall. An appearance in the Turf Mile is not etched in stone, but if he goes he certainly rates a gander.

Tale of Ekati rolled to an effortless score in his summer bow, then went to the sidelines with bucked shins following a troubled runner-up finish to Ready’s Image in the Grade 2 Sanford. After some rest and relaxation, he overcame a bad start and traffic woes to professionally nab the Grade 2 Futurity at Belmont Park. He was purposely kept out of the Grade 1 Champagne while training up to the Juvenile. He only has three starts under his belt and has never been around two-turns, but I trust Tagg to do the right thing, and if he shows up in the starting gate, look out!

Veteran trainer Carl Nafzger has two wins and three seconds from sixteen Breeders’ Cup starters, and both of his 2007 entrants appear poised for big efforts. Interpreting synthetic starts can be challenging, but Mr. Nafzger has taken away all of the guesswork. He uses Kentucky Polytrack races as preps for big events, and those tactics worked brilliantly for Street Sense in last year’s Juvenile and this year’s Kentucky Derby. Will the third time be the charm in the BC Classic? Lady Joanne also exits a synthetic loss, and the Distaff challenger can be expected to bring her A game to Monmouth.

Overseas conditioner John Oxx has only made two appearances in our Cup, including a win with Ridgewood Pearl (1995) and a show finish with Azamour (2005). He’s back for this year’s Filly & Mare Turf with Timarwa, last seen winning a Group 3 in Ireland on October 5th. Mr. Oxx makes the journey when he thinks he has a realistic shot, and his talented filly should not be taken lightly.

Using trainer angles and intent can unearth hidden gems, especially on Breeders’ Cup day. I could keep going with more examples, but the journey is part of the destination, and it is time for everyone to initiate their own handicapping expeditions.

Mr. Horak is a guest handicapper for Nostalgic Horse. He has been handicapping horses regularly for racingonthenet.com since the late nineties. He was also a contributor for Fast Track horse racing radio show for several years and recently has started a Myspace page devoted to handicapping.