by Jarrod Horak

Before I objectively look at 20 of the leading players (in alphabetical order), let’s get an idea of what makes a legitimate Derby contender.

Two-year-old foundation. Early/pressing ability and quality speed/pace figures. Strong graded route form and a quick turn of foot. Ability to handle more than one track, especially conventional dirt. A trio of three-year-old preps ideal but not necessary. Strong route pedigree and experienced Derby connections a plus.

ADRIANO: Looked sensational in his Lane’s End victory when last seen in March. His lone conventional dirt start was poor, and the Polytrack/turf specialist is unlikely to excel at Churchill Downs.

ATONED: Raced seven times as a juvenile, with his best effort a neck defeat in the Remsen. Came off the bench and got necked again in career best effort in the Tampa Bay Derby. Finished an okay 4th in the Illinois Derby. He was a bit tight around the first turn, and his win chances were basically over with the lack of pace up front. He posted a strong Keeneland work on April 13th, and Saturday’s Lexington is his last shot to garner enough graded earnings for the Derby. Another option is to hold out for the Preakness two weeks later.

BIG BROWN: Once again showed vast amounts of raw talent in the Florida Derby, his third romping win in as many starts. He broke running from the outside gate and was much the best of a strung out field. I still want no parts of him on the first Saturday in May. He looms an underlay and lacks the seasoning to be taken seriously as a win candidate (remember Curlin). Eventually, one of these lightly raced sorts will jump up and win the Derby, but they will have to accomplish the feat without my backing.

BIG TRUCK: Grinding NY-bred was slowly improving before his below par Blue Grass effort. Was the major beneficiary of the War Pass meltdown in the Tampa Bay Derby. Doesn’t have that quick turn of foot that many Derby winners possess.

BOB BLACK JACK: Set an easy pace and held the show in a parade of sprint to route success stories in the San Felipe. Rock solid place finish in the Santa Anita Derby, but I do not see him as anything more than a Derby pace player. Does not own a ten furlong pedigree. Worked four furlongs in 48 seconds on April 14th at Santa Anita. Seems to be learning to ration his speed.

COLONEL JOHN: I have always liked this consistent colt, and his Santa Anita Derby win was easily the most visually impressive Derby prep race so far. He powered home effortlessly and galloped out with gusto after maneuvering his way through traffic. No doubt he can handle ten furlongs, but it remains to be seen how he will handle conventional dirt. All of his training/races have been over synthetic ground, so his Churchill drills leading up to the Derby will be vital in determining his contender status. Drilled four furlongs in 47.40 seconds on April 14th at Santa Anita. One more California work will follow, then it is off to Kentucky next week.

COOL COAL MAN: Much improved pace figs this year. Rock solid Fountain of Youth victory from the advantageous rail post. As a matter of fact, both of his wins this year were from the inside post over nine furlongs at the Gulf. Sat the right ground saving stalking trip in the Blue Grass, but he faded in the lane in a disappointing effort. Maybe it was the Polytrack surface, but I do not like his Derby chances after so many perfect trips and well posted starts. Stamina is a bit suspect.

COURT VISION: Sustained runner rallied for the show behind Cool Coal Man in his seasonal bow, and he did the same in the Wood Memorial. Needs to run faster to be taken seriously, and his lack of speed does not help matters.

COWBOY CAL: Turf route specialist seems a perfect fit for Keeneland’s Polytrack, and he did not disappoint in a close-up place finish behind stablemate Monba in the Blue Grass. He figures to have a tougher time handling the Churchill Downs surface than the Blue Grass winner.

DENIS OF CORK: Was undefeated and on the improve after three starts, but he hit a major bump in the road after a lackluster 5th in the Illinois Derby. Lack of pace hurt his chances, and connections made a huge blunder in skipping the Rebel. He needs all the seasoning he can get…and more graded earnings as well. Note that he is a light horse and unlikely to handle the rigors of the Triple Crown. Not a serious win threat on Derby day.

EL GATO MALO: Failed to deliver a top performance while experiencing trouble in the Santa Anita Derby. He was shuffled back before making a nice move, but he flattened out while showing suspect stamina. Below average pace figs and a string of synthetic starts. Ten furlong prospects are dim.

GAYEGO: San Felipe runner-up sat the perfect tracking trip in a rock solid Arkansas Derby win, and he proved his ability to handle conventional dirt. One of several early/pressing types gearing up for the Derby, and he might not have enough furlongs under his belt to handle the Derby demands.

HEY BYRN: His below par pace figs proved to be his undoing in the Florida Derby, but he was right at home just off a crawling pace in his Holy Bull victory on April 13th. He obviously likes the Gulf but looks like a Grade 3 (at best) type at this stage.

MONBA: Pletcher finally clinched a spot in the Derby starting gate when this one rebounded in a big way to take the Blue Grass, making him 2-2 on Polytrack. His only other victory was at Churchill Downs, and the promising sort rates a longshot look in the Derby.

PYRO: Looked good in a pair of paceless events at Fair Grounds, and the consistent sustained runner sat closer to in the Louisiana Derby. Was one of several flopping conventional dirt runners in the Blue Grass. I was not sure how good he really was before his bust last time, and now he is even more of an enigma. Certainly capable of much better, but can he close into a fast pace and retain his strong kick? Note that the only two times he tried to rally into above par fractions, he had to settle for the place behind War Pass.

RECAPTURETHEGLORY: Stole the Illinois Derby for the affable Louis Roussel III. The field basically ran around the track in order, and there will be more than enough quality speed to keep him honest at Churchill. A Derby pace factor at the most.

TALE OF EKATI: Did not lift a hoof in his disappointing seasonal bow in the Louisiana Derby, but he rebounded with a gritty stalking tally in the Wood Memorial. Note that he came home the final 1/8 in almost 14 seconds in the Wood, and that does not bode well for his ten furlong chances at Churchill.

VISIONAIRE: Another strong finisher with no early lick. Nabbed the Gotham in the slop, then finished an okay 5th in the Blue Grass. Sustained runner is capable of passing tired horses and landing a share in the Derby.

WAR PASS: Had everything his own way in five easy tallies to kick off his career. Was the controlling speed on paper and likely winner of the Tampa Bay Derby, but things went wrong from the beginning, and he spit the bit in a puzzling last place effort. Great horses overcome adversity, and the first time things did not go perfectly he threw in the towel. Set a legit pace in the Wood and got weary in the stretch. He held second but confirmed his standing as a quality need-to-lead speed horse with suspect stamina. The Derby is routinely a roughly run calvary charge, and I do not see him around at the finish.

Z FORTUNE: Might have been able to turn the tables on Gayego in the Arkansas Derby with a better post and more ground saved. Nice to see him bounce back from his below par Rebel four weeks earlier. Decent sort seems a cut below the best.

Mr. Horak is a guest handicapper for Nostalgic Horse. He has been handicapping horses regularly for racingonthenet. com since the late nineties. He also writes a daily Horse Racing Blog for b5media. com. He was a contributor for Fast Track horse racing radio show for several years and recently has started a Myspace page devoted to handicapping.