by Elizabeth Rancani

It is that time of year, and the field is starting to take shape for the Kentucky Derby. Even with his disaster of a Blue Grass, Pyro will still go to Louisville, as one of the favorites even. Did he get enough out of the race to be competitive at Churchill Downs? He certainly has the foundation under him and one bad race does not mean that he will not be prepared in Louisville. You just hate to see such a bad race so close to the Derby. If he had finished anywhere in the top four, he would still be a monster at Churchill. Now, there is a serious chink in that armor.

Colonel John is an exciting Derby prospect. The Santa Anita Derby winner has not won the Kentucky Derby in almost two decades. Colonel John is the total package though, and he just may be the one to break that trend. He is versitle, consistent, classy and can handle adversity. His pedigree suggests that dirt is not going to be an issue. His numbers are slower than the East Coast horses, but it is hard to get an accurate handle on synthetic surfaces, and if any of the East Coast horses throw in a clunker (as they have been taking turns doing all year) Colonel John may be first to the wire.

Tale of Ekati is another interesting horse. He was one of the favorites coming into the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but he hated an off track and finished up the field. It took him awhile to get going this year, but his Wood Memorial was impressive.

War Pass ran a gutsy Wood Memorial, but does he have the stamina? He certainly has heart, but he did seem to stagger home in the Wood. That isn’t a good sign when the Derby is farther. He will also have to deal with Bob Black Jack early on in the Derby. Bob Black Jack is a consistent horse that seems to always have something left down the lane, but it is doubtful it will be enough to hold off the Derby closers. If he were to skip the Derby and wait for the Preakness, he just might be a Classic winner after all.

Then there is the Derby favorite, Big Brown. Few horses have won the Derby off only three starts. Regret did in 1915, but racing was a different game back then. Curlin came to Louisville last year with just three starts, and the best he could do was third. Curlin is a champion, and few doubt how special he is, but still the light racing schedule did him in. Of course, on the flip side that is why the racing world still has Curlin to root for now, but that is another story. Big Brown does not have to lead, and that will certainly help, but a lot can happen in the Derby. A horse that can handle all sorts of traffic and scenerios is usually the horse that comes home first. He also has a lot of infirmities, and a twenty horse field can often intensify that. Look at all the good horses that came up empty in the Derby, and had injuries discovered after the race. The Cliff’s Edge lost shoes, Scat Daddy never raced again, Demons Begone (the 1987 Derby favorite) bled and never finished the race. The list can go on and on, and many horses are never the same after starting in the Derby, because the Derby is perhaps harder on horses than any other race in America. It is the only race that consistently has twenty horses in. That is not a horse race, it is a stampede!

Eight Belles may be entered in the race, and one can only guess how she will be against colts. Larry Jones would not enter her though if he felt she had no shot, so to rule her out would be an unwise decision. She has handled the fillies with ease, and has a great running style for the Derby. Distance will not be a problem for her either. Her fields are often small, however so she is not used to traffic or adversity. Young fillies are often tempermental sorts, and the Derby can send them into a tailspin, but she seems ready for a big race, and her nine previous starts had to do a lot to prepare her for battle.

The graded earnings will once again come into play and there will be some good horses on the outside and some others that while have the graded stakes earnings, don’t really deserve to be in the race, as the majority of their graded earnings come from their two year old campaign.

Pyro, War Pass, Big Brown, Eight Belles, Colonel John obviously belong. Smooth Air, Adriano, Tale of Ekati, Monba and Gayego, Recapturetheglory are improving at just the right time. Some others are suspect and will run just because they have the graded earnings. Cool Coal Man got lucky in the Fountain of Youth. Z Humor has not won since last December, but at least he has finished in the money. Anak Nakal has not hit the board this year.

Big Truck did win the Tampa Bay Derby, but then forgot to show up for the Blue Grass. Which race was the real Big Truck present for? Denis of Cork won the Southwest Stakes, but then flopped in the Illinois Derby. El Gato Malo won the San Rafael, but then failed in his next attempt. Visionaire may just be exceptional on a muddy track, but if the Derby does not have rain in the forecast, he may run his usual race.

Blackberry Road, Texas Wildcatter, Kings Silver Son, My Pal Charlie, Yankee Bravo and Kentucky Bear all showed promise year, but will in all likely hood not have the graded earnings to make the field.

The real question is whether or not a favorite will win, or whether they too will have an off day (Pyro and War Pass already have had one), and open the door for another Giacamo like win. If Big Brown, Pyro and War Pass all have bad days, just about any of the other horses are capable of winning the Kentucky Derby. So, while it seems dumb to run Anak Nakal, or Z Humor because of what little they have shown this year, this could very well be the year that anyone can rise to the top. At least, until the next race that is.