Nostalgic Horse

by: Elizabeth Rancani

Last year Hard Spun, like Colonel John ran a 57 and change the week prior to the Derby. Some felt that was too fast for a work out that close to the Derby. It wasn’t. He just showed the world, he was ready to roll, and almost got to the wire first. Street Sense wore the roses, and his history had his best race at Churchill Downs. He loved the track, and did not disappoint his followers. Training well at Churchill is key in picking a Derby winner. Some say that running a beyer number over 100 is also key.

When too many front runners run in the Derby, they tend to cancel each other out, and this year Bob Black Jack, Gayego, Cowboy Cal, Recapturetheglory,and Big Brown all may do the same thing. Big Brown may very well be a superstar, and if he can pull off a win, a Triple Crown will be likely. But, if he is pressed from the start, the pace could be suicidal and the top five or six may have nothing left when it matters most. Bellamy Road anyone?

Big Brown certainly has history against him. Is he ready to run the biggest race of his life, off just three starts? Curlin (and no one now should doubt just how good Curlin is) could not overcome his light preparations and finished third last year. His last race before the Derby was as impressive as they come. He clearly dominated his Arkansas Derby field, but then faced adversity and finished third at Churchill Downs.

Undefeated horses often do not do well at the Derby. Seattle Slew did. Barbaro did. Smarty Jones did. Majestic Prince and Morvich won the Derby undefeated. The little filly Regret won it also, and she had only three previous starts, just like Big Brown. Racing was a different story then, however, and Regret did not face a field of twenty horses.

A horse does not have to win their last prep before the Derby, but they have to finish well. That could spell bad news for Pyro. History proves you can lose, but don’t lose that big. Is Pyro ready to roll after running the worst race of his career? Racing is full of Derbies where the winner finished well in their final prep, but did not win. Funny Cide, Lil E. Tee, Street Sense, Silver Charm,Ferdinand, Genuine Risk, Swale and Real Quiet all ran well enough in their final preps to set them up for the big dance. None of them checked in out of the money in their final start.

Running huge in their last prep also does not guarantee a trip to the winners’ circle. Afleet Alex, Point Given, Bellamy Road, Holy Bull, Easy Goer, Hansel, Snow Chief, and Althea all ran away from their prep fields, but could not sustain the momentum at Churchill Downs. All but Easy Goer and Afleet Alex finished off the board, well beaten.

If a horse ran well as a two year old but didn’t show much at three, they didn’t show it at the Derby either (Anak Nakal). Action this Day won at two the biggest race of the year, but was winless in 2004, finishing 4th, 7th and 6th. He held his form in the Derby and finished 6th. Capote ran well at two, and finished 4th in his two starts at three. He was eased in the Derby. Anees ran the best race of his career in the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but finished 3rd and 4th in his three year old Derby preps. He finished 13th in his Derby try.

Rules are made to be broken and in the past few years Derby winners include: a gelding, a favorite, a Breeders Cup Juvenile winner and a horse with five weeks between starts. Horse racing is changing and inevitably more tried and true formulas will fail, making way for a new way of training a horse. In a year like this, when it seems as though picking a winner is anyone’s guess, go back to the tried and true, and let history be your guide.

Photo of Colonel John taken by Michelle Yu.