by: Elizabeth Rancani

Andy Beyer created a system of rating horses in every race and giving them a number that reflects their speed. It takes into account track conditions and traffic. Since its inception, 87% of Derby winners cracked a beyer speed figure of 100 or higher in one of their three starts before triumphing in the Derby. In recent years only Giacomo and Sea Hero did not.

The horses in this year’s Derby that have the triple digit beyers are Gayego, Big Brown, Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune, Eight Belles, and Pyro. Pyro’s triple digit beyer came as a two year old, however, so remember that when playing the number game. He did seem to be on the upswing this year, and were his last race not on synthetic he may have jumped back into the three digit range. Recapturetheglory may not have the stamina to win at ten furlongs, and he faces a tough early pace. The same can be said for Gayego, and the fact that he is going to be in the worst starting gate does not help his chances. Gayego looks spectacular and may be a horse that can outrun his pedigree, but add in a terrible post, and it may be too much to overcome.

That leaves Big Brown, Z Fortune, and the filly Eight Belles. Big Brown certainly looks the part of a Derby winner, but he will have to overcome an outside post and a history full of horses that have failed at the Derby with only three starts. Derby winners typically have a strong two year old foundation. The last Derby winner without it happened in 1882. Big Brown ran only once as a two year old, hardly what one would call a foundation.

Z Fortune has everything you would expect a Derby winner to have. He has a great running style, improving form and a decent pedigree. He just may be the sleeper choice this year. He has only finished out of the money once, that being his fifth place finish in the Rebel. It is hard to imagine him not taking a piece of the Derby pie.

Eight Belles is another horse with great foundation, a great stalking running style and a pedigree that suggests ten furlongs will not be a problem. The fact that she has run only against fillies is a concern, but with nine races to her credit and an imposing size, this is not a filly to be taken lightly. The numbers this year do not suggest a huge gap between the fillies and the colts anyway.

There are also several horses that should not be left out simply because of beyer numbers, because this could very well be the year that a horse on the cusp wins the big dance. Synthetic surfaces are changing the way the game is played, and horses that run primarily on synthetics generally show lower beyer numbers. Synthetics are usually run closer to turf races, and the speed is not there on the front end to boost the beyers. Add in the fact that Gayego ran well on his first dirt attempt in the Arkansas Derby, and it would seem stupid to ignore Colonel John just because of his beyer figures. On dirt, he can easily boost his numbers enough to be competitive with this Derby field. He has a pedigree that screams dirt and ten furlongs, and has twice won at nine furlongs. His running style is perfect for the Derby and he will draw a very nice post position.

Cool Coal Man earned a beyer figure of 99 in the Fountain of Youth, and were it not for the synthetic surface, he certainly would have been more competitive in the Blue Grass. He just may rebound this Saturday and shock them all.

Overall, the beyer numbers of this year’s crop of three year olds, has been dismal compared to years past. It could very well be because of the surfaces, or it could also be that the horses are just not as fast this year. Big Brown holds the highest beyer and that would not even be enough to win most of the past derbies. It could be this is another year for a Giacomo, and that any horse in the high ninety range can jump up enough to win, but leave the triple digit beyer earners off your betting tickets at your peril. History is against you.