Everyone from Bob Baffert to your casual race day fan is ready to concede the Triple Crown and The Belmont Stakes to the wonder horse that is Big Brown. The way he won the Preakness and Kentucky Derby, the Belmont is a sure thing, right? Anyone who has suffered recently through defeats of ten double crown winners on the cusp of racing’s greatest achievement is wary to jump on the Big Brown bandwagon.

Is he a talented horse? Yes, immensely. Did he have very impressive wins in the Florida Derby, The Kentucky Derby and The Preakness. He sure did. In what was surely his finest hour, he won the Kentucky Derby going away coming from the dreaded outside post. Same thing in the Florida Derby, but there his competition was suspect. Ditto for the Preakness. He won the Preakness as he was supposed to. There wasn’t another Grade one winner in the race. He wasn’t that impressive beating up a bunch of lower level stakes horses.

Actually this year’s entire crop of three year olds, is hardly helping to make Big Brown’s case that he is indeed a super horse. Is he really? Does anyone think that he could have handled last year’s group with the ease that he has handled this bunch? It is often a fool’s errand to compare horses of different generations, but at Nostalgic horse that is difficult not to do.

Certainly comparisons to Secretariat are premature. Even if he wins at Belmont by twenty lengths, he never will have had to face down the likes of Sham. Or will he? At Belmont he just might find a horse capable of giving him his most difficult challenge in Casino Drive. Casino Drive won the Peter Pan impressively. Remember another colt on the cusp of winning the Crown that certainly was as talented as Big Brown, facing a fresh Peter Pan winner? It was the Spring of 1979, and a big, grey horse named Spectacular Bid was all but certain to win the third Triple Crown in as many years. He was the two year old champion, and a huge favorite in both the Derby and Preakness. He won both very convincingly, but a horse named Coastal came in and ruined the final dance.

Spectacular Bid went on to great things, and is a horse for the ages. Many consider him the best horse to fail at winning the Triple Crown. He should have had that next to his name in racing’s hall of fame, but for whatever reason (and the story was he stepped on a safety pin), he didn’t do it. Over the years Sunday Silence, Alysheba, Pleasant Colony, Funny Cide, War Emblem, Smarty Jones, Silver Charm and Real Quiet have all come to the Belmont seeking greatness. Real Quiet came the closest, falling an agonizing nose short. Another comes this year, but before you crown him think back to all the others. Is he really that much better? Sure he is better than Funny Cide, War Emblem and Pleasant Colony, but what about the rest? They were a sure thing in their days as well, and that long stretch at Belmont became too much for horses tired from running three huge races in five short weeks. A mile and a half is a lot to ask any young horse to run, especially a son of Boundary that has never been in a fight. He will get one at Belmont.