The Kentucky Derby is now six days away, and certainly this group seems far superior than last year’s bunch. Many have run a beyer number over 100 (an absolute essential for a Derby winner) in a prep. This year’s betting will be tough, as there is a case to be made for a number of them.

Some things to consider when betting the Derby-

Quality Road continues to battle a quarter crack, and this close to the Derby, it cannot be a good thing. A twenty horse field is expected, and with that much traffic, a horse needs to be in ‘perfect’ condition. Many horses have come out of the Kentucky Derby and never run the same again. Quality Road is too good to subject him to that. Save him for the Preakness where he will have more time to heal, and show his true self. A run in the Kentucky Derby is not worth a career. No where is luck more necessary than the Kentucky Derby, and lady luck claims many chances leading up to it every year. Quality Road holds the fastest beyer in our Derby preps this year, but the quarter crack negates his Derby chances.

That being said Gulfstream should take a look at their track. No doubt his quarter cracks came as a result of the rock hard track that is making track records fall to claimers and allowance horses alike. No one needs another catastrophic breakdown, and there is nothing to be gained from racing over a track like that one. Quality Road’s Derby hopes may be over after prepping in Florida. It should make other trainers think long and hard about sending their best babies out that way.

One horse that was supposed to be out, is now back in. Square Eddie had the talent last year and looked like a potential Derby winner, but ran short in the Blue Grass. Was one race enough to make it to the Derby winner’s circle? That is doubtful, but he should be a really good horse later this year.

What do with make of the overseas gang? Well, they certainly are talented, running 1-2 in the UAE Derby, but preps overseas have not netted a Derby winner yet, and it might not this year either. Although, these to seem to be the best hope to overcome that particular curse, their numbers fall somewhat below America’s best hopes.

Dunkirk’s 108 beyer in the Florida Derby has many fans smelling roses, but the Apollo curse looms large. Pletcher as a trainer (0 for 22 now?) looms larger. Mr. Finley at ESPN feels that Gomez made a mistake choosing Pioneer of the Nile over this colt, based solely on beyers, but really it would have looked silly to choose a horse that has never won a Grade I event over the seasoned Pioneer. Gomez owed Baffert and Pioneer that much, and Dunkirk has a lot to overcome to wind up in the winner’s circle. While many would point to Big Brown’s success last year, one would have to argue that the horses in this year’s Derby are faster. Dunkirk may be a Big Brown, but that is where the comparisions end from last year’s three year olds.

Pioneer of the Nile is not getting enough respect, but being a student of beyer numbers and how they play in the Derby, I can see why. He does seem to do what he has to do to win, and like Gary Stevens said “will only get better when he has a faster pace to run at.” Sometimes it appears that he is only ‘playing’ with his fields.  He also has Bob Baffert, who is no stranger to the Derby.  He has been flattered by the horses he defeated though, and it is not hard to imagine him jumping up 10 points or more on dirt. I Want Revenge will be the post time favorite, and he finished behind Pioneer twice. If Pioneer takes to dirt like his workout says he will, he will be very tough to beat. Rumor has it, he is a headcase though, and headcases struggle in twenty horse fields. The only horse that may beat him Saturday is himself.

I Want Revenge was fabulous winning The Wood Memorial. For a horse to overcome adversity and still rally in the stretch to win, takes a special horse. He will be the likely favorite, and rightly so on Saturday. He has it all; class, speed, stamina and maturity. Often in the Derby maturity is most important, which is one of the reasons a seasoned horse wears the roses most often.

Last year’s gallant second place finisher Eight Belles’ memory will haunt Churchill Downs this year, and no one but the Peta gang will be sad to see Friesen Fire take top prize. Larry Jones should end his career on a high note, and brings his best shot at the Derby to Louisville. Friesen Fire got his act together, and his only knock is a seven week lay off. Jones got a Danzig colt to a second place finish off a six week layoff so he knows how to work them so as not to have a short horse. If what horse people say is true and there are Derby gods, surely they owe Jones the roses.

Top Ten List

1. Pioneer of the Nile (beyer high 96)

2. I Want Revenge (beyer high 113)

3. Quality Road (beyer high 113)

4. Friesen Fire (beyer high 104)

5. Desert Party

6. Regal Ransom

7. Papa Clem (beyer high 101)

8. Dunkirk (beyer high of 108)

9. General Quarters (beyer high of 102)

10. Musket Man

A lot of handicappers would not think of betting a horse in the Derby that has not broken into the triple digit beyer numbers. The last horse to win without doing so in a prep was Giacomo. Quality Road would be the top pick if not for the quarter cracks. I Want Revenge and Papa Clem improved on dirt so if Pioneer of the Nile does just that it is hard to see him not winning the Derby. Regal Ransom should give him some pace to run at, and I Want Revenge, Musket Man, Friesen Fire, Quality Road, General Quarters and Desert Party will be there pressing it. Pioneer, Dunkirk, Chocolate Candy, Win Willy, Hold Me Back and West Side Bernie will be coming down the stretch late.

One this is for sure; this Derby is full of talent. It is hard to see any of these horses winning a Triple Crown however, since it is hard to imagine any of the top guns losing three times in a row.  When you have eight horses that have run big numbers in preps, you know you are in for a better season than 2008. And that is a very good thing for thoroughbred racing. Now if they can just stay sound……